More On Palin's "Surprising" Debate Victory

Tim Cavanaugh at Reason is calling it for Palin, also. He predicts

[T]he hyper-informed Biden will demonstrate his mastery of the facts, leave no doubt about his flair for complex policy questions, get his ass handed to him in the debate, and never understand what went wrong.

An "ass-handing" no less! If this kind of talk can gain MSM credence (and I believe it is highly unlikely) then it could cause an inversion of expectations. Again, this is nothing the Obama/Biden camp has any control over, it is all about the media narrative, the dominant expectations meme in the media environment at the moment of the debate.

The most likely outcome is a "functional" ("actual") tie, meaning competence on both sides and no major gaffes. The "win" will go to whomever is the consensus "underdog" going in, which is almost certain to be Palin.

The only way Palin can lose (barring improbable meltdown) is if she is somehow expected (by media consensus) to win.