And the Winner of the Vice-Presidential Debate...
Palin! Natch. Mickey Kaus is already calling this one, and I pretty much agree.
Here's how it breaks down: The expectations game will easily break in her favor. Biden's much greater relative experience level will raise his performance expectations and keep hers dampened. She will study hard. (Seems to be capable enough, and will master her flash cards easily enough--this is not snark, Biden will study as well, but he has less of that sort of prep work, because of said experience.) She will easily rattle off whatever foreign policy talking points are required. She will be focused (as will Biden) on attacking the top of the opposing ticket. She will easily meet all the basic requirements. Merely even "holding her own" against Biden will be declared a victory for Palin in the media meta-story, and not a damn thing Joe Biden or anyone else can do about it.
Caveat: As of today, I see only one narrative line that leads to a potential Palin weakness in the debate. It is possible that she will stay in full-bore attack dog mode so much of the time that it could come to taint her aura. (Some have already dubbed her a "pit bull in lipstick".) She was apparently quite scathing in her convention speech, which certainly played well to the base, but there is a possibility of taking it too far for the swing voters in play. Doesn't seem likely. First, apparently there is something of a gender/appearance card in play, whereby (non-Hillary) women get away with saying nasty things that would backfire on a man (see: Ann Coulter, Sarah Silverman). Second, even if this stigma does begin to attach to her, she would just need to dial it back a bit for the debate, and presto! Perfect lady again!
The odds breakdown (as of September 4):
1) Media calls "Palin Win" - 90% (Note sub-breakdown below.)
1a) Palin "wins" by keeping it close and "beating expectations" - 85%
1b) Palin truly beats Biden by any reasonable measure - 5% - This means even partisan Dems agree she wins. She masters all questions, gives better answers, gets in all the zingers, and/or Biden chokes with major gaffe or loss of composure.
2) Media Calls "Draw" - 5% - This means Biden really does look better, but no so-called "knockout blow" is landed. By still "beating expectations," she is given the draw.
3) Media Calls "Biden Win" - 5% - Palin really stumbles. Gets lost or stumped, loses composure, or commits serious gaffe.
Biden's best hope? Look charming and confident, cross fingers. Perhaps another hurricane or other act of God intervenes, scrapping the debate...
Here's how it breaks down: The expectations game will easily break in her favor. Biden's much greater relative experience level will raise his performance expectations and keep hers dampened. She will study hard. (Seems to be capable enough, and will master her flash cards easily enough--this is not snark, Biden will study as well, but he has less of that sort of prep work, because of said experience.) She will easily rattle off whatever foreign policy talking points are required. She will be focused (as will Biden) on attacking the top of the opposing ticket. She will easily meet all the basic requirements. Merely even "holding her own" against Biden will be declared a victory for Palin in the media meta-story, and not a damn thing Joe Biden or anyone else can do about it.
Caveat: As of today, I see only one narrative line that leads to a potential Palin weakness in the debate. It is possible that she will stay in full-bore attack dog mode so much of the time that it could come to taint her aura. (Some have already dubbed her a "pit bull in lipstick".) She was apparently quite scathing in her convention speech, which certainly played well to the base, but there is a possibility of taking it too far for the swing voters in play. Doesn't seem likely. First, apparently there is something of a gender/appearance card in play, whereby (non-Hillary) women get away with saying nasty things that would backfire on a man (see: Ann Coulter, Sarah Silverman). Second, even if this stigma does begin to attach to her, she would just need to dial it back a bit for the debate, and presto! Perfect lady again!
The odds breakdown (as of September 4):
1) Media calls "Palin Win" - 90% (Note sub-breakdown below.)
1a) Palin "wins" by keeping it close and "beating expectations" - 85%
1b) Palin truly beats Biden by any reasonable measure - 5% - This means even partisan Dems agree she wins. She masters all questions, gives better answers, gets in all the zingers, and/or Biden chokes with major gaffe or loss of composure.
2) Media Calls "Draw" - 5% - This means Biden really does look better, but no so-called "knockout blow" is landed. By still "beating expectations," she is given the draw.
3) Media Calls "Biden Win" - 5% - Palin really stumbles. Gets lost or stumped, loses composure, or commits serious gaffe.
Biden's best hope? Look charming and confident, cross fingers. Perhaps another hurricane or other act of God intervenes, scrapping the debate...
Labels: government, media, politics
posted by wRONgainey at 5:15 AM
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